25 Jul · 21:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlad
ELO 1470
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lasota
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1508
FormLLWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chlad🌟Chlad covers set handicap as underdog 65% (31)
Fair odds · Lasota
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.