25 Jul · 21:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TO
🇨🇿Tomas Ogrocki
ELO 1394
FormWWLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lasota
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1508
FormLLWLW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ogrocki🌟Ogrocki stays under total as underdog 68% (25)
Fair odds · Lasota
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+114
H2H10-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+114)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-7)