25 Jul · 23:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JV
🇨🇿Jan Vonasek
ELO 1515
FormLLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Brozek
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1580
FormLLLLW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Brozek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H54-28
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (54-28)