25 Jul · 22:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RH
🇨🇿Radek Hruby
ELO 1399
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dvorak
MD
🇨🇿Miloslav Dvorak
ELO 1416
FormLLLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.