26 Jul · 08:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1556
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Holub
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1564
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Holub
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.