26 Jul · 08:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1511
FormWWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Jancak
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1448
FormLWLWL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sobota🌟Jancak goes over total as favourite 66% (35)
Fair odds · Jancak
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H6-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-2)