26 Jul · 10:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1448
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Drozd
KD
🇨🇿Kamil Drozd
ELO 1463
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
🌟Sobota covers set handicap as underdog 63% (27)
Fair odds · Drozd
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.