26 Jul · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿David Skulina
ELO 1556
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skulina
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1527
FormLWLLL
52%
48%
🌟Benes covers set handicap as underdog 72% (39)
Fair odds · Skulina
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H6-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.