26 Jul · 09:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Manhal Jnr
ELO 1489
FormLLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Ruzicka
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1556
FormWLWWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+67
H2H12-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-6)