26 Jul · 09:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1511
FormWWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Jancak
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1508
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 70% (37)
Fair odds · Jancak
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H10-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.