26 Jul · 14:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1634
FormWWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Stapor
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1633
FormWLWWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+1
H2H100-77
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.