26 Jul · 22:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DB
🇨🇿Daniel Branny
ELO 1470
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Branny
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1435
FormLWWLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jokiel🌟Branny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (16)
Fair odds · Branny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.