26 Jul · 21:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1567
FormLWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Krupnik
MR
🇨🇿Michal Raska
ELO 1494
FormWWLWL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Raska🌟Raska covers set handicap as underdog 73% (45)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+73
H2H8-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-4)