26 Jul · 22:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Martin Boltik
ELO 1559
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Boltik
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Cibik
ELO 1510
FormWLLLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Boltik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H6-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.