26 Jul · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PJ
🇨🇿Patrik Jokiel
ELO 1435
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Volny
JV
🇨🇿Jakub Volny
ELO 1476
FormLWWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jokiel🌟Volny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 21% (24)
Fair odds · Volny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.