26 Jul · 17:55 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1591
FormLLLWW
60%Win chancemodel fair 1.67Dohnal
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1465
FormWLLLW
60%
40%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 71% (42)
Fair odds · Dohnal
Model 60% · 1.67vsMarket 72% · 1.39· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 44%Total ~75 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
21%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
1-3
15%
Elo Gap+126
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+126)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)