26 Jul · 21:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kabelka
ELO 1434
FormLWWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Neterda
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1526
FormLWLLW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Neterda
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+92
H2H3-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+92)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-0)