26 Jul · 19:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1465
FormWLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Melichar
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Melichar
ELO 1496
FormWLLLL
47%
53%
🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 71% (42)
Fair odds · Melichar
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~73 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H2-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.