26 Jul · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1591
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dohnal
DT
🇨🇿Dominik Tichy
ELO 1563
FormWWLLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Tichy🌟Tichy covers set handicap as underdog 80% (20)
Fair odds · Dohnal
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.