26 Jul · 21:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1538
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Molin
MR
🇨🇿Michal Raska
ELO 1494
FormWWLWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Raska🌟Molin goes over total as favourite 75% (20)
Fair odds · Molin
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.