27 Jul · 12:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1562
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Moravec
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1545
FormWWWLL
51%
49%
🌟Benes covers set handicap as underdog 72% (39)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H23-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.