27 Jul · 14:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FK
🇨🇿Filip Karel
ELO 1642
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Bartik
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Bartik
ELO 1675
FormWLLLW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Bartik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~81 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H11-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.