27 Jul · 13:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FK
🇨🇿Filip Karel
ELO 1642
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lengal
DL
🇨🇿Dominik Lengal
ELO 1655
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Lengal
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H10-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.