27 Jul · 10:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1536
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jr
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1489
FormWLLWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sulc🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (49)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H13-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.