27 Jul · 15:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlumsky
ELO 1447
FormLWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Chlumsky
FM
🇨🇿Filip Marat
ELO 1381
FormLLWLL
55%
45%
🌟Marat goes over total as underdog 66% (61)
Fair odds · Chlumsky
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+66
H2H12-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-6)