27 Jul · 13:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1578
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Krupnik
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1562
FormLWWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec🌟Moravec covers set handicap as underdog 67% (15)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H12-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.