27 Jul · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1578
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Krupnik
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1545
FormWWWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Benes covers set handicap as underdog 72% (39)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H36-36
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.