27 Jul · 16:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1482
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Moravec
MS
🇨🇿Miroslav Sochor
ELO 1459
FormLWLLW
52%
48%
🌟Sochor stays under total as underdog 70% (23)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H16-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.