27 Jul · 18:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1547
FormWLLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Neterda
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1552
FormLWWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Neterda
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H8-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.