27 Jul · 22:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FT
🇨🇿Filip Theodor
ELO 1451
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Molin
VM
🇨🇿Vojtech Molin
ELO 1455
FormLWWWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Molin
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.