27 Jul · 18:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1519
FormWWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tlusty
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1482
FormWLWWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Tlusty
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.