27 Jul · 21:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VM
🇨🇿Vojtech Molin
ELO 1455
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Molin
DB
🇨🇿Daniel Branny
ELO 1440
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Molin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.