27 Jul · 16:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JW
🇨🇿Jakub Walek
ELO 1490
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Walek
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1477
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 69% (29)
Fair odds · Walek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.