27 Jul · 16:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1442
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sturma
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1477
FormLLLLW
47%
53%
🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (38)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H16-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.