27 Jul · 17:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MJ
🇨🇿Martin Jirasek
ELO 1558
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jirasek
RN
🇨🇿Radek Neterda
ELO 1552
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Jirasek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H3-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.