27 Jul · 21:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RJ
🇨🇿Roman Jonas
ELO 1449
FormWWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jonas
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1417
FormWLWWW
53%
47%
🌟Chmelicek rarely covers set handicap as underdog 33% (12)
Fair odds · Jonas
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H6-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.