28 Jul · 13:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1564
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Moravec
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1566
FormWWLWL
50%
50%
🌟Macurak covers set handicap as underdog 76% (17)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.