28 Jul · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1560
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lysek
TL
🇨🇿Tomas Lysek
ELO 1585
FormWLWWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Lysek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 14% (14)
Fair odds · Lysek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.