28 Jul · 10:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TL
🇨🇿Tomas Lysek
ELO 1585
FormWLWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lysek
LK
🇨🇿Lukas Kantor
ELO 1476
FormLWLWL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kantor🌟Lysek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 14% (14)
Fair odds · Lysek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+109
H2H1-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+109)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)