28 Jul · 12:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1566
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Moravec
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1526
FormLWWLL
53%
47%
🌟Moravec stays under total as favourite 70% (20)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H25-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.