28 Jul · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1568
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Skvrna
RB
🇨🇿Radek Benes
ELO 1526
FormLWWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Benes🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (79)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H52-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.