28 Jul · 13:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1568
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Skvrna
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1566
FormWWLWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (79)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H16-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.