28 Jul · 11:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1568
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Skvrna
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1564
FormLWWWW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Macurak🌟Macurak covers set handicap as underdog 76% (17)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.