28 Jul · 14:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FM
🇨🇿Filip Marat
ELO 1357
FormLLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Zahradka
ZZ
🇨🇿Zdenek Zahradka
ELO 1427
FormLLWLL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Marat🌟Marat goes over total as underdog 66% (61)
Fair odds · Zahradka
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+70
H2H27-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (27-14)