28 Jul · 15:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1528
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Langer
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1535
FormWLLWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 67% (87)
Fair odds · Langer
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H53-47
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.