28 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1643
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stepien
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1654
FormWWLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Stepien
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H78-101
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.