28 Jul · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DO
🇨🇿David Osvald
ELO 1549
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Osvald
JV
🇨🇿Jakub Volny
ELO 1495
FormWLWWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Volny🌟Volny covers set handicap as underdog 72% (25)
Fair odds · Osvald
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~82 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.