28 Jul · 18:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1549
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Holub
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Manhal Jnr
ELO 1498
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Holub
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.