28 Jul · 21:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1647
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Niezgoda
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vicherek
ELO 1597
FormLWWLL
54%
46%
🌟Vicherek covers set handicap as underdog 82% (34)
Fair odds · Niezgoda
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H32-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.