28 Jul · 21:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1654
FormLLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Zlamal
JZ
🇨🇿Jaromir Zlamal
ELO 1676
FormLLWLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stusek🌟Stusek covers set handicap as underdog 68% (87)
Fair odds · Zlamal
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H91-47
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.